5 metrics-signals that alert you to PAU's decline

Hi everyone, PAU never falls suddenly. Weak signals appear 1 - 7 days before, which you can notice in advance and have time to do something. Below we will analyze the signals that will help to solve the problem

Let's break down those very signals:

1. DAU is stable, but Session Start Rate is dropping
   This is one of the strongest early triggers. Players enter the casino but do not start playing.
   What it means:
   - slots load slower
   - weak lobby/supplements
   - the promo doesn't motivate to start the game
   - Too many blocking popups without customization to the right segments (dies/upsale etc...)
   Bottom line: PAU will drop in 1-3 days if you do nothing.
2. Deposit Frequency drops with normal FTD traffic
   If deposits per active player drop => PAU will drop too.
   What's signaling:
   - economy burns bankrolls: sticky bonuses with high vager, low RTP
   - payment problems
   - high volatility of top games
   - loyalty program does not stimulate gaming activity and, as a consequence, deposits
3. CTR by lobby is stable, but First Spin Conversion is declining
   Players click into games, but do not make the first spin
   What it means:
   - The UX inside games has deteriorated
   - the game loads slowly or has other problems
   - Too much positioning with untargeted and uninteresting plays
   - there are no normal providers in the top / one of your key currencies has fallen off
   That's the signal before the PAU goes down
4. Bonus Participation Rate drops 2-3 days in a row
   If players started participating less in bonuses/missions/tournaments, PAU would start to sag.
   Reasons:
   - promo is outdated
   - too high a vager on awards
   - non-targeted / non-competitive awards
   - non-event
   - no mechanic rotation
   This is an early signal because bonuses = entry into activity.
5. Returning Players Rate is starting to decline
   This is classic pre-crisis. If the percentage of returning players drops even 2-4%, PAU drops in 24 to 48 hours.
   Reasons:
   - audience fatigue. Especially concerns Tir 1 countries, where everything is strongly tied to the days of the WP
   - lack of reasons to return to the product
   - weak CRM and communication within the product