How D. Trump, using his status as President of the United States, plans to strengthen his family’s position in the iGaming vertical.

PMP (Media)

https://t.me/product_marketing_punkrock/3738

I think everyone understands that the survey results are completely custom-made. The random US citizen has very vague ideas about the difference between Federal regulators and state gambling commissions.

Naturally, any subscriber to our channel understands perfectly well that the forecast markets: Kalshi and Polymarket are naturally 100% gambling. Unlike classic exchanges, you cannot invest in real assets through them.

By its nature, «forecast markets» is absolutely not a new invention. In iGaming vertical, it has long been known as «betting exchanges» or bookmakers for professional players. Players play against each other, the bookmaker is just an intermediary who does not risk his funds.

In this case, bets on financial, technological and political events were added to sports bets and all this was called the «forecast market».

The main idea is that unlike sports betting exchanges, forecast markets provide the opportunity not only to play, but also to plan your own life. First of all, by adding a segment of political bets.

Let's explain with an example. If you see odds on the outcome of a football match, but you yourself are not a player, this will not affect your life in any way.

It’s a different matter, the odds for events are political. Not even the players, they are very interested in them, since such events can very much interfere in your life.

But such knowledge is only a side effect that does not in any way negate the fact that forecast markets are inherently gambling.

But in our case, there is a nuance. Management and, with a high degree of probability, capital, both Kalshi and Polymarket, and now these are the two largest and only forecast markets, included representatives of the family of the current US President D. Trump.

Federal regulators are part of the system of federal executive authorities, and report to D. Trump.

And the state gambling commissions, D. Trump, are absolutely not subordinate.

Additionally, if «forecast markets» are recognized as a form of exchange activity (although let's say again, it is 100% gambling that has nothing to do with exchange activity), they will be able to accept players from all US states. Kalshi is already operating de facto in the US. Polymarket is preparing to enter the US market. But so far the situation is somewhat suspended and there is no final and legally fixed point in the dispute: whether it is gambling or exchange activity.

From this, we believe that the survey figures become more clear, when 79% of randomly surveyed citizens confidently believe that this is exchange activity, not gambling. Such stuffing into the media creates the right news noise and prepares society for «forecast markets» to operate under federal supervision.

When it comes to the U.S. market, political betting isn't very popular there. But sports betting is quite popular. And it's this segment that is already pulling VIP players away from the U.S. iGaming-regulated products - DraftKings, FunDuel, Fanatics, Bet365 on Kalshi (it has better odds, as in any forecast market, and doesn't cut player limits).

What we are seeing now is, of course, D. Trump’s unprecedented intervention in the industry.

The immunity of «forecast markets» from the oversight of state gambling commissions will deal a monstrous blow to traditional iGaming products operating in the regulated US market: DraftKings, FunDuel, Fanatics, Bet365, etc. Players who bet on sports, and primarily the VIP segment, will begin to leave them for the forecast markets.

A separate issue with Polymarket, also related to the family of D.Trump. He plans to enter the US market the same, but his asset is a base of non-US players. Now many GEOs are blocking it, but if Polymarket is recognized as an exchange platform licensed in the US, not every GEO will decide to block. This will no longer be blocking a gambling site, but interfering in US stock trading.

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